I’ve been observing what I would call a ‘weak signal’ which lifts my heart. There is plenty of doom and gloom around democracy and countries sliding away from full democracy. But, there are also stories about countries that have gone the other way. I would like to share four of these and a fifth and final example - not of a country, but of a state in the USA - and people working together across party lines.
In a previous blog, Social Collapse… or maybe not, I wrote about Fractured Backbones and the research that my co-author, Gill Ringland and I have done, into what underpins how societies and countries work together successfully.
How do you engender trust? How do you get people to successfully work together and to honour their agreements? We have called this sort of agreement, designed for enabling groups to work well together, a “Backbone.”
A Backbone is a set of rules which are shared, agreed and support the way that things work. Societies design Backbones to enable their particular society (or societies and countries) to work successfully and effectively together. Backbones cover many aspects of life such as financial services, governance, and international (technical and professional) standards.
When Backbones fracture, and no longer work properly, it is likely that the system or culture around them has evolved and they are no longer fit for purpose.
The way countries “do” governance is a Backbone. This is about the agreements people make on how their society can organise how it is governed. Backbones aren’t good or bad; rather they work, or they don’t. When they don’t, we label them ‘Fractured Backbones’.
The drift away from a democracy that works effectively as a form of governance, can be a move towards Fractured Backbones. If governance isn’t working well, and as it should, then it is a fractured Backbone that needs restoring. Restoring fractured Backbones means getting the Backbone to work effectively again, which isn’t necessarily the same way of working as it previously had. Systems and societies change over time – Backbones need to be maintained and adapted to continue to work well.
There is a good example in the new president of Guatemala. I’ve written previously about Guatemala and how the new president, Bernardo Arévalo, got onto the ballot against the odds (the previous regime allowed it because they thought he couldn’t possibly win) and then won the election. This isn’t just about Bernardo Arévalo winning the election, it is about how he is going about adapting and restoring the Backbone of governance in Guatemala. President Bernardo Arévalo is restoring the Backbone - so that it works effectively - by using the existing rule of law which underpins governance.
He won election on a strong anti-corruption platform. The institutions in Guatemala are set up such that the prosecutor general is “sort of a co-equal branch of state” entirely independent of the president. The current incumbent, Consuelo Porras, is deeply entrenched in post until her term comes to an end in 2026. Fransisco Toro notes, “Anywhere else in Latin America, this would have been a train crash. The president would have insisted on getting rid of her, whether legally or illegally. But that's not who Bernardo Arévalo is. Bernardo Arévalo's take is that if he has to cohabitate with this figure for the first two years of his presidency, well, that's just what the law is.[1]”
That quote “.. that’s just what the law is” links to what happened in Poland when Donald Tusk won the election. He and his coalition are setting about restoring (and adapting) the Backbone of governance in Poland to shift it away from populism and towards a more effective rule of law based Backbone of Governance.
Tusk’s coalition government finds itself in a strange position, with a huge mandate for change after record turnout in last October’s election but its hands tied legislatively. The PiS-allied president Andrzej Duda still wields veto power over any legislation and during its years in office, PiS packed ostensibly neutral bodies such as the media watchdog board with political appointees making it hard to effect personnel changes.
‘Long-term populism creates an ivy that creeps around institutions, it’s not easy to get rid of it and you have horrible legal dilemmas that are unprecedented.’ says Jaroslaw Kuisz.
Mr Duda is up for re-election next summer, so there is hope that he might be replaced giving the governing coalition more room to enable change. They have appointed a law professor and former human rights ombudsman, Adam Bodnar, as justice minister. He is the one tasked with finding a way forward. He says,
“We’ll do everything that is possible with decrees, ordinances, limiting negative impact and changing the atmosphere … but maybe for legislative change we’ll have to wait a big longer.”
As in Guatemala, Donald Tusk and his coalition choose to restore a rule of law that applies to all alike as an underpinning for the Backbone of Governance. As in Guatemala, people in Poland are experiencing more than just a normal change from one government to another. It is a watershed moment.
Via Vox, another unexpected restoration – the political situation in Senegal: Senegal had a fair and free election against the odds.
Good news: Democracy won in Senegal. Here’s why it matters.
It’s the biggest global election year in history and the future of democracy is on every ballot. But amid an international backsliding in democratic norms, including in countries with a longer history of democracy like India, Senegal’s election last week was a major win for democracy.
The former president Macky Sall tried to delay the elections and to imprison/disqualify opposition candidates. The country is surrounded by neighbouring countries who suffer from military coups.
The strength of Senegal’s democracy depends on several factors that go beyond any single politician, including relatively robust, independent democratic institutions like the courts and, perhaps surprisingly, the military. Those elements set it apart from other African nations presently under military rule.
Sall tried to extend his term in office by delaying elections, but Senegalese civil society protested in large numbers. The constitutional court ruled (in February) that this attempt to stay in power was illegal. However, although opposition candidates were allowed to run, they were kept in jail until a few days before the election.
Bassirou Diomaye Faye won the election and Sall stepped down. There was a peaceful transition of power. President Faye campaigned on combating corruption, and greater sovereignty and economic opportunity for Senegalese.
And finally, the recent election in Turkey was very interesting. Polls had indicated that the ruling party of President Erdogan (AK) would win local elections, the 30 March 2024 edition of The Economist agreed. But on April 1st, the country’s main opposition (CHP) won big victories in Turkey’s largest cities. According to The Economist (6 April 2024), the Republican People’s Party (CHP) got 37.8% of the overall vote, compared with 35.5% for AK. The Guardian noted,
Ekrem Imamoğlu secured a second term as mayor of Istanbul. “My dear Istanbulites, you opened the door to a new future today… Starting from tomorrow, Turkey will be a different Turkey. You opened the door to the rise of democracy, equality and freedom … You ignited hope at the ballot box.”
The message being sent was that people felt the pain from the economic crisis linked to President Erdogan’s policies and they blame him and his party (AK) for it. It is a weak signal, but it leaves the door to hope open.
And finally, here is a lesson on how to work together, across party lines, from my friend, Rosemary Cairns in her Substack Seeing Like A Local about how Minnesota’s Civility Caucus helps legislators work together across political parties. It clearly pays to do so. The last quote says,
“This does not mean giving up cherished values or policy beliefs. It means learning to disagree with respect rather than rancor,” said co-chair Bill Doherty, a co-founder of Braver Angels and a professor at the University of Minnesota.
Let’s keep looking for more glimmers and inspirational glimpses. I hope that these will encourage and inspire you.
[1] From our upcoming book, working title Resilient Choices: anticipating threats, embracing change, to be published later in 2024 by Triarchy Press.